CAD/CHF: Fundamental Review & Forecast

At the beginning of a global economic crisis, choosing the deals to sell in favour of the CHF would be profitable.

Fundamental Analysis
17 अप्रैल 2020

The CAD/CHF is a confrontation of two weak currencies without a clearly defined trend, which is not typical for the rates of risky currencies against safe assets. In March, a trend reversal took place, with the formation of a weak upward movement in favor of the Canadian dollar. However, the situation for the CAD is very difficult: the Canadian dollar is under pressure as a commodity currency, due to low oil prices and extremely negative forecasts for the demand for the 'black gold' this year.

Canada is no exception, and is also subject to the negative impact of the coronavirus on its economy. The unemployment rate rose to the highest level in nine years, and given similar problems in the US, as well as a decline in consumer demand, we can expect a further decrease in exports to the US.

The situation in Switzerland is not the best - the entire region is almost paralyzed due to the coronavirus epidemic. The consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level in several decades. Therefore, the franc remains the most unattractive asset among the safe ones.

However, versus the CAD, the franc has potential, and we consider the deals to SELL as the most effective in the near future, given also the Stochastic oscillator's signal, and the IMF's forecasts about the beginning of the most large-scale economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Stanislav Litinskyi

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